Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan says the Binance hack would have sunk the exchange a decade ago. The $6.3 billion theft, he argues, leaves the long-term direction of Bitcoin (BTC) unchanged.

Precedent, however, backs him on the long term but not the short term. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) did shed $643 million the day after the theft, but the price was already dropping before the hackers hit

Did Earlier Hacks Break Bitcoin?

Mt. Gox, once the dominant Bitcoin exchange, filed for bankruptcy in February 2014 after as many as 950,000 BTC vanished. Bitcoin fell 30% that month, Bloomberg reported.

However, creditors began receiving repayments in 2024, when NBC valued the missing coins above $58 billion.

Bitfinex lost about 120,000 BTC in August 2016. Bitcoin fell 13% over two days, though part of that slide predated the announcement.

Bybit lost roughly $1.5 billion in February 2025, and its reserves fell from $10.8 billion to $6.5 billion within days.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s monthly performance fell to negative 13.6%, on-chain firm Glassnode says, amid a broader correction.

Four days later, daily Bitcoin ETF outflows hit a record of roughly $1 billion.

Is the Binance Hack Different From Mt. Gox?

In contrast, Binance says it has already covered $6 billion of the loss.

It restored withdrawals in phases from November 1, starting with Bitcoin.

Binance said partners froze about $3 billion, roughly half the haul, a sign Hougan reads as industry maturity.

Hougan added that five years ago, institutions had no ETFs to turn to for greater security.

The FBI has attributed the attack to North Korea, as it did with Bybit. Bitget Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Gracy Chen said North Korea was very likely behind a $350 million breach in September.

Hougan called it a traditional cybersecurity hack, not a flaw in Bitcoin’s blockchain. North Korea has been linked to Bybit, Bitget and Binance since 2025, so exchanges could remain the weak point.

Coming ETF flows will show whether Binance matches Bybit’s near-$3 billion week or fades faster.