Bitwise projects Bitcoin (BTC) will hit $1.6 million by 2036, about 19 times its $83,557 starting price. Most of that value depends on Bitcoin winning a quarter of the store-of-value market it shares with gold.
The store-of-value slot supplies about $27.5 trillion of the model’s $33.6 trillion total, roughly 82% of Bitcoin’s projected 2036 value. That leaves the target exposed to one assumption more than any other in the model.
What Bitwise Needs Bitcoin to Take From Gold
Bitwise builds the target with a total addressable market model. It sizes each market Bitcoin could serve, applies a penetration rate, and divides by the full 21 million supply.
The firm expects the combined gold and Bitcoin market to grow from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. Its base case hands Bitcoin 25% of that pool.
At the starting price, Bitcoin’s 20.1 million circulating coins are worth about $1.7 trillion, roughly 5% of today’s $31.1 trillion market.
The six other markets in the model, including institutional portfolios and national treasury reserves, add only about $6 trillion combined.
Bitwise also highlights Bitcoin’s tightening link withgold. Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold reached a record 0.58 on September 11.
“We would expect this relationship to persist and deepen over time as awareness of bitcoin’s store-of-value properties continues to grow,” thereport read.
The model itself assumes a 0.21 correlation with gold over the next decade, up from a 10-year average of 0.11.
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Bitcoin is better positioned today than at any point in its past. We're boosting our 10-year bitcoin target from $1.3m to $1.6m. https://t.co/oQG2kKXbvo — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 28, 2026
How Far the Target Falls if Gold Keeps Its Ground
The bear case cuts the store-of-value share to 2.5% and gives every other market zero. That yields a 2036 price of $130,686, a 4.6% annual return.
Bitcoin trades at 79,902, down 1.12% over the past day.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets
Even Bitwise’s base case sits far above JPMorgan’s2036 Bitcoin scenarios, which put base-case returns at 10% a year. Bitwise’s base case implies 34.3%. Jim Cramer, for one, said this month he still prefersgold for portfolio insurance over Bitcoin.
Bitwise lists quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances, and regulatory reversal as key risks. Still, the widest swing in its model depends on how much of gold’s role shifts to Bitcoin by 2036.
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