Kalshi Valuation Could Nearly Double to $40B: What Would Justify It?

Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation near $40 billion, according to Reuters, nearly double its price valuation from May.

Kalshi, a US exchange for trading real-world event outcomes, would gain about $18 billion in value since May, a jump of roughly 82%.

What the Kalshi Valuation Implies for Revenue

Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group are among the reported investors. Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in talks to lead the round.

Sacra, a private markets research firm, estimates Kalshi hit $3.5 billion in annualized revenue in June. That compares with $735 million in 2025. At $40 billion, the estimate implies a multiple of roughly 11 times revenue.

Kalshi’s own May disclosure was more modest, putting annualized revenue above $1.5 billion.

Kalshi’s growth has been outpacing it close rival Polymarket. Image Source: Sacra

Sacra calculates that sportsbook operator DraftKings trades at about 2.1 times revenue. Sports contracts, however, make up roughly 80% of Kalshi’s volume.

Matching the DraftKings multiple at $40 billion would require about $19 billion in annual revenue. That is more than five times Sacra’s June estimate.

Investors appear to be pricing a different business. Reuters reportsKalshi wants to become a multi-asset trading platform. That would pit it against derivatives exchange CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange.

Competition is tightening as well. Polymarket is separately seeking $1 billion, and Sacra says Robinhood now routes some of its busiest World Cup contracts to its own exchange. Reuters adds that Kalshi has still taken market share from Polymarket over the past year, citing Dune Analytics data.

Regulation Could Set the Multiple

Scrutiny is also building. US Senator Adam Schiff and other lawmakers have raised investor-protection concerns about prediction markets, according to Reuters.

The House Oversight Committee has run an insider trading probe into prediction markets since May, and Kalshi was among its first targets.

Kalshi has also faced wash trading claims, which it disputes. It has held early talks on an initial public offering (IPO) in the coming years, which would expose its revenue multiple to public-market scrutiny.

Reuters reports the round is expected to close within weeks. Its final terms may show whether investors price Kalshi as a regulated exchange or as a fast-growing sportsbook.