Bitcoin topped $85,000 and gold jumped within minutes of new US inflation data on Wednesday. The Fed’s preferred price gauge rose 3.4% from a year earlier, well below forecasts of 3.7%.
Gold price increased in a straight line, ending a week-long downtrend.
Gold and Bitcoin hourly charts showing the jump after the US inflation release, Source: TradingView
How Much US Inflation Cooled
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index measures what Americans pay for goods and services. The Federal Reserve watches it more closely than any other inflation gauge.
Headline PCE slowed to 3.4% from July’s 3.7% reading. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose 3.0%, below the 3.3% consensus.
Core PCE much cooler than expected, as previewed: PCE 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PCE 3.4% YoY, Exp. 3.7% PCE Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3%, PCE Core 3.0% YoY, Exp. 3.3% https://t.co/vZws3Ik41Q — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2026
On a monthly basis, core prices climbed 0.2%, under the 0.3% forecast. Headline PCE rose 0.3%, in line with estimates.
Bullish for Bitcoin and Gold?
The timing points to the rate outlook. The Fed is raising rates, and this report was one of two it was watching before its Oct. 27 and 28 meeting.
On Sept. 16, the central bank lifted rates by 0.25% to a 3.75% to 4.00% range, its first hike since 2023. Of 18 officials, 16 projected at least one more increase before year-end.
Traders had braced for a hotter print. As of Sept. 28, CME FedWatch data showed a 72.5% chance of an October hike. Updated odds were less than 40 as of this writing.
[](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)Target Rate Probabilities for October Meeting. Source: CME FedWatch Tool
The dollar was also running hot going in. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against major currencies, was having its best month since June on hawkish Fed signals.
A softer reading chips away at the case for the next hike. BeInCrypto reported earlier this month that lower rate hike odds tend to support Bitcoin by easing pressure from Treasury yields. Gold pays no interest, so it also tends to lose appeal when rates climb.
Part of the cooling may be technical, however. Bank forecasts flagged the risk ahead of the release, expecting core PCE to print around 0.27%.
August PCE Forecasts. Source: Timiraos/X
The BEA updated how it calculates prices in three components. That change was expected to trim August’s annual figure by a few tenths of a percentage point.
Strong GDP Keeps a Fed Hike in Play
Growth data released at the same time pointed the other way. Gross domestic product (GDP), the total value of goods and services the US produces, grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter.
US FINAL Q2 GDP +2.2% (CONSENSUS +1.5%) US FINAL Q2 PCE PRICE INDEX +5.0% US FINAL Q2 CORE PCE +3.3% (CONSENSUS +3.6%) — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 30, 2026
Households also spent more. Consumer spending adjusted for inflation jumped 0.6% in August, the biggest monthly gain since March 2025.
The September jobs report on Friday is the last major data point before the Fed meets. Policymakers will weigh cooler inflation against hot spending and growth.
